Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:19 pm at Tampa); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 46–52% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 2329 American Flight history →	TPA 18:31	PHX 19:54	46%	19%	0.6%	58%
WN 2112 Southwest	TPA 19:24	PHX 20:13	52%	15%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 19:15 → LAX 21:17DL 749	1h 18m Los Angeles	LAX 22:35 → PHX 00:06 +1DL 3827 · flown by SkyWest	7h 51m	77%	59%
American Details →	TPA 18:30 → ORD 21:01AA 2768	1h 50m Chicago	ORD 22:51 → PHX 00:56 +1AA 435	9h 26m	88%	53%
American Details →	TPA 19:13 → ORD 21:10AA 1101	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 22:35 → PHX 00:14 +1AA 2786	8h 01m	78%	45%
American Details →	TPA 19:29 → DFW 21:17AA 2512	1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:59 → PHX 23:28AA 2319	6h 59m	79%	37%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	TPA 19:35 → LAS 21:15WN 660	55m Las Vegas	LAS 22:10 → PHX 23:26WN 2376	6h 51m	57%	34%
Southwest Details →	TPA 18:55 → AUS 20:25WN 4001	1h 10m Austin	AUS 21:35 → PHX 22:00WN 378	6h 05m	52%	26%
Southwest Details →	TPA 19:00 → SAN 20:55WN 133	50m San Diego	SAN 21:45 → PHX 23:15WN 3527	7h 15m	13%	4%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON