Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:17 am at Tampa)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1167 Southwest	TPA 09:10	SDF 11:22	9%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 4466 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 09:20	SDF 11:25	10%	2%	0.2%	77%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	TPA 08:00 → MDW 09:40WN 2869	3h 05m Chicago	MDW 12:45 → SDF 14:55WN 4473	6h 55m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	TPA 07:25 → BNA 08:20WN 4002	1h 55m Nashville	BNA 10:15 → SDF 12:20WN 717	4h 55m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	TPA 14:00 → DTW 16:48DL 2587	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic	7h 12m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	2h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 12:49 → SDF 15:45DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	8h 00m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	TPA 09:05 → BWI 11:25WN 4009	3h 15m Baltimore	BWI 14:40 → SDF 16:25WN 4885	7h 20m	100%	86%
United Details →	TPA 12:30 → ORD 14:40UA 2223	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 17:50 → SDF 20:23UA 3598 · flown by Republic	7h 53m	96%	86%
Southwest Details →	TPA 07:20 → BWI 09:45WN 2701	1h 00m Baltimore	BWI 10:45 → SDF 12:30WN 1297	5h 10m	93%	83%
United Details →	TPA 16:30 → ORD 18:40UA 1010	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → SDF 23:59UA 3659 · flown by Republic	7h 29m	93%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48DL 759	51m Atlanta	ATL 20:39 → SDF 22:05DL 2842	4h 02m	51%	43%
United Details →	TPA 17:45 → EWR 20:36UA 1501	54m Newark	EWR 21:30 → SDF 00:03 +1UA 3609 · flown by Republic	6h 18m	56%	39%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:06 → LGA 13:44DL 2531	51m New York	LGA 14:35 → SDF 17:11DL 4851 · flown by Endeavor	6h 05m	51%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON