Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 31 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1450 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1450 DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 3067 BWI 16:44 → IAH 19:07 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1450 United Flight history →	DCA 06:00	IAH 08:13	8%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 1747 United	IAD 06:15	IAH 08:40	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1898 United Flight history →	BWI 06:00	IAH 08:16	9%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 743 United Flight history →	BWI 12:55	IAH 15:11	10%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 2190 United Flight history →	DCA 10:58	IAH 13:19	10%	4%	0.6%	86%
WN 934 Southwest	DCA 06:09	HOU 08:26	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1432 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 06:15	HOU 08:25	11%	2%	0.7%	90%
UA 697 United Flight history →	DCA 08:20	IAH 10:41	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1535 United Flight history →	IAD 12:50	IAH 15:11	11%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 1986 United Flight history →	IAD 22:20	IAH 00:45	11%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 1935 United Flight history →	IAD 06:30	IAH 08:39	11%	3%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
UA 382 United Flight history →	DCA 12:59	IAH 15:18	12%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 3246 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:50	HOU 09:00	12%	2%	0.6%	81%
UA 1524 United Flight history →	IAD 08:40	IAH 10:59	13%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 2095 United Flight history →	BWI 15:03	IAH 17:19	14%	5%	0.6%	65%
WN 4158 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:25	HOU 10:40	15%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 1009 Southwest	BWI 07:34	HOU 10:00	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 956 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:00	HOU 12:15	15%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 1678 United Flight history →	DCA 19:28	IAH 21:59	16%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 1381 United Flight history →	DCA 14:55	IAH 17:14	17%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 1785 United Flight history →	DCA 16:59	IAH 19:27	18%	6%	0.6%	66%
UA 2217 United Flight history →	IAD 17:59	IAH 20:25	19%	5%	0.6%	72%
WN 4254 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:00	HOU 15:15	24%	4%	0.6%	53%
WN 1433 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 12:35	HOU 14:45	27%	5%	0.6%	47%
OH 5253 PSA	DCA 07:51	IAH 10:29	27%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 5333 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 13:59	IAH 16:22	27%	13%	0.9%	57%
WN 958 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:00	HOU 22:15	30%	5%	0.6%	48%
WN 2730 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 18:10	HOU 20:35	31%	7%	0.6%	26%
AA 5467 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 07:59	IAH 10:18	32%	8%	0.8%	70%
AA 5222 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:56	IAH 22:14	33%	14%	0.9%	36%
F9 3067 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 16:44	IAH 19:07	33%	13%	1.0%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	47m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	4h 43m	79%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON