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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 49 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4627 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 4627 BWI 06:15 → FLL 08:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 2959 IAD 18:09 → FLL 20:52 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time
Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 4627 Southwest Flight history → BWI 06:15 FLL 08:55 5% 2% 0.6% 95%
WN 408 Southwest BWI 06:22 FLL 09:02 6% 2% 0.6% no record
AA 1178 American Flight history → DCA 05:00 MIA 07:56 6% 3% 1.0% 93%
AA 2344 American Flight history → DCA 05:13 MIA 07:55 7% 3% 1.0% 96%
AA 1183 American Flight history → BWI 06:00 MIA 08:46 8% 4% 1.0% 87%
AA 401 American Flight history → DCA 06:02 MIA 08:50 9% 3% 0.9% 93%
UA 1073 United Flight history → IAD 08:45 MIA 11:35 9% 3% 0.6% 87%
WN 4028 Southwest Flight history → BWI 07:25 FLL 09:55 10% 3% 0.6% 100%
UA 1825 United Flight history → IAD 08:20 FLL 11:07 11% 4% 0.6% 89%
WN 1041 Southwest Flight history → BWI 08:15 PBI 10:50 11% 2% 0.8% 89%
WN 3278 Southwest Flight history → BWI 08:20 MIA 11:00 12% 3% 0.7% 80%
B6 1795 JetBlue Flight history → BWI 06:09 FLL 08:50 12% 5% 0.7% 86%
AA 4431 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 08:00 PBI 10:49 12% 3% 0.7% 78%
WN 2097 Southwest BWI 08:22 FLL 11:09 13% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 945 Southwest Flight history → BWI 08:25 FLL 11:05 13% 3% 0.6% 82%
WN 4785 Southwest Flight history → BWI 09:50 FLL 12:20 13% 3% 0.6% 85%
B6 379 JetBlue Flight history → DCA 06:00 FLL 08:32 14% 4% 0.7% 77%
WN 1044 Southwest Flight history → BWI 11:35 PBI 14:05 14% 4% 0.8% 79%
AA 422 American Flight history → DCA 08:20 MIA 11:17 16% 4% 0.7% 84%
WN 4737 Southwest Flight history → BWI 11:45 MIA 14:20 17% 4% 0.6% 80%
UA 1379 United Flight history → IAD 17:42 FLL 20:32 17% 6% 0.6% 81%
AA 1173 American Flight history → DCA 09:55 MIA 12:38 18% 4% 0.7% 88%
AA 1893 American Flight history → DCA 08:00 FLL 10:47 18% 6% 0.6% 89%
WN 4735 Southwest Flight history → BWI 18:25 FLL 21:15 20% 5% 0.7% 53%
AA 1873 American Flight history → DCA 08:20 FLL 11:01 21% 5% 0.6% 72%
B6 2995 JetBlue Flight history → BWI 08:00 FLL 10:41 21% 6% 0.7% 80%
B6 579 JetBlue Flight history → DCA 07:59 FLL 10:40 22% 6% 0.7% 81%
DL 2576 Delta Flight history → DCA 14:43 MIA 17:33 22% 8% 1.2% 67%
WN 1045 Southwest Flight history → BWI 20:40 PBI 23:20 22% 6% 0.7% 64%
WN 947 Southwest Flight history → BWI 17:00 FLL 19:45 23% 5% 0.6% 50%
AA 1627 American Flight history → DCA 11:55 MIA 14:38 23% 6% 0.9% 76%
WN 235 Southwest Flight history → BWI 20:30 MIA 23:20 25% 5% 0.9% 50%
WN 3072 Southwest Flight history → BWI 20:15 FLL 22:55 25% 5% 0.7% 50%
AA 2281 American Flight history → DCA 11:59 PBI 14:28 25% 6% 0.9% 71%
B6 2433 JetBlue Flight history → DCA 09:55 PBI 12:23 25% 8% 0.8% 82%
AA 2915 American Flight history → DCA 13:44 MIA 16:29 25% 6% 1.0% 70%
B6 2595 JetBlue Flight history → BWI 16:00 FLL 18:41 28% 13% 0.8% 57%
F9 4411 Frontier Flight history → BWI 13:05 FLL 15:47 28% 10% 1.3% 59%
AA 2664 American Flight history → DCA 14:59 MIA 17:48 30% 8% 1.3% 75%
F9 1665 Frontier Flight history → BWI 19:27 MIA 22:19 30% 16% 1.9% 67%
AA 1619 American Flight history → BWI 18:39 MIA 21:25 31% 8% 1.3% 64%
WN 4562 Southwest Flight history → DCA 14:35 FLL 17:15 31% 6% 0.6% 28%
AA 1233 American Flight history → DCA 20:40 MIA 23:28 33% 8% 1.3% 63%
B6 23 JetBlue Flight history → DCA 18:00 PBI 20:35 36% 16% 0.9% 61%
AA 3244 American Flight history → DCA 18:55 MIA 21:45 36% 9% 1.3% 49%
AA 1612 American Flight history → DCA 17:40 MIA 20:34 37% 9% 1.3% 62%
B6 1579 JetBlue Flight history → DCA 15:10 FLL 17:51 39% 14% 0.8% 61%
B6 1979 JetBlue Flight history → DCA 20:55 FLL 23:30 45% 16% 0.8% 56%
F9 2959 Frontier Flight history → IAD 18:09 FLL 20:52 47% 16% 1.0% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON