tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 107 SkyWest AUS 10:04 JAX 13:41 12% 5% 5.3% no record
WN 2182 Southwest AUS 12:09 JAX 15:39 15% 4% 3.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:00 → DTW 11:58DL 559 3h 04m Detroit DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994 8h 27m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:47 → JAX 11:25AA 1061 5h 24m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923 5h 35m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:55 → CLT 09:38AA 1032 1h 10m Charlotte CLT 10:48 → JAX 12:25AA 1925 5h 30m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 1h 02m Houston IAH 07:35 → JAX 10:56UA 6146 · flown by Mesa 4h 26m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024 6h 20m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:20AA 862 3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:38 → JAX 13:10AA 2329 7h 09m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 3h 57m Houston IAH 12:10 → JAX 15:37UA 4048 · flown by Mesa 7h 27m 100% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 50m Houston IAH 18:15 → JAX 21:41UA 4035 · flown by Mesa 4h 31m 64% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON