Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1101 BWI 07:02 → TPA 09:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2415 BWI 18:21 → TPA 20:47 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1101 Southwest	BWI 07:02	TPA 09:33	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1102 Southwest	BWI 08:32	TPA 11:13	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
F9 2925 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 08:12	TPA 11:06	9%	3%	1.2%	73%
WN 1103 Southwest	BWI 11:09	TPA 13:36	10%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 1106 Southwest	BWI 15:50	TPA 18:16	13%	4%	2.1%	no record
WN 2415 Southwest	BWI 18:21	TPA 20:47	13%	3%	2.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON