Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: AS 435 at 14:51, 15%.

Safest bet that day AS 435 FAI 14:51 → ANC 16:04 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 247 FAI 08:00 → ANC 09:13 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Weather 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 435 Alaska	FAI 14:51	ANC 16:04	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
AS 2050 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	FAI 18:09	ANC 19:27	18%	6%	1.6%	100%worse than usual
AS 359 Alaska	FAI 13:42	ANC 14:56	20%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 570 Alaska	FAI 05:08	ANC 06:21	20%	4%	1.1%	no record
QX 2110 Horizon	FAI 14:40	ANC 15:58	20%	5%	1.8%	no record
AS 724 Alaska	FAI 13:46	ANC 14:56	22%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 586 Alaska	FAI 09:43	ANC 10:56	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 272 Alaska	FAI 07:07	ANC 08:17	24%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 204 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 09:57	ANC 11:08	24%	5%	0.8%	98%worse than usual
QX 2036 Horizon	FAI 05:04	ANC 06:22	26%	8%	4.8%	no record
AS 247 Alaska	FAI 08:00	ANC 09:13	27%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON