Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1061 at 14:37, 19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1061 FAI 14:37 → SEA 19:27 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AS 210 FAI 05:31 → SEA 10:12 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Weather 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1061 Delta Flight history →	FAI 14:37	SEA 19:27	19%	4%	0.9%	79%
AS 302 Alaska	FAI 12:02	SEA 16:47	25%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 242 Alaska	FAI 16:42	SEA 21:13	27%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 331 Alaska	FAI 12:00	SEA 16:27	27%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 92 Alaska	FAI 01:15	SEA 06:00	28%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 219 Alaska	FAI 01:37	SEA 06:02	28%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 2408 Delta Flight history →	FAI 01:35	SEA 06:16	35%	9%	0.6%	76%worse than usual
AS 285 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 08:20	SEA 12:49	37%	5%	0.7%	96%worse than usual
AS 210 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 05:31	SEA 10:12	41%	5%	0.7%	83%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON