Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2894 at 06:01, 5%.

Safest bet that day AA 2894 MCO 06:01 → MIA 07:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1642 MCO 18:32 → MIA 19:46 · 66% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Weather 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2894 American Flight history →	MCO 06:01	MIA 07:12	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 1733 American Flight history →	MCO 07:34	MIA 08:46	8%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 1693 American Flight history →	MCO 08:55	MIA 10:09	9%	4%	0.7%	91%
B6 69 JetBlue	MCO 08:44	FLL 10:12	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2240 American Flight history →	MCO 10:00	MIA 11:15	14%	5%	0.7%	88%
WN 2547 Southwest	MCO 10:43	MIA 11:48	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2149 Southwest	MCO 10:43	FLL 11:51	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3860 Southwest	MCO 11:30	MIA 13:09	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1652 American	MCO 10:55	MIA 12:14	20%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 4056 Southwest	MCO 12:06	FLL 13:06	25%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 180 Southwest	MCO 12:06	MIA 13:03	25%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1333 American	MCO 12:29	FLL 13:52	25%	5%	1.3%	no record
B6 2547 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:05	FLL 11:12	26%	5%	0.6%	80%
AA 366 American	MCO 12:29	MIA 14:04	28%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 1630 American	MCO 12:54	MIA 14:33	30%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 3654 Southwest	MCO 21:39	MIA 22:51	37%	13%	2.1%	no record
WN 4950 Southwest	MCO 21:03	MIA 22:08	41%	14%	2.1%	no record
WN 2309 Southwest	MCO 20:43	FLL 21:51	45%	16%	1.3%	no record
AA 2109 American	MCO 15:42	MIA 17:05	51%	13%	1.3%	no record
AA 1635 American	MCO 15:45	MIA 16:56	53%	11%	1.3%	no record
B6 1947 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:25	FLL 19:37	58%	26%	1.8%	65%worse than usual
WN 3160 Southwest	MCO 19:22	FLL 20:28	60%	19%	1.6%	no record
AA 1610 American	MCO 19:44	MIA 20:58	64%	25%	2.2%	no record
AA 1642 American Flight history →	MCO 18:32	MIA 19:46	66%	28%	2.3%	66%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON