Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, QX 2319 at 12:15, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


QX 2319 Horizon	PAE 12:15	PDX 13:25	17%	6%	1.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PAE 07:39 → PHX 10:35AS 732	3h 29m Phoenix	PHX 14:04 → PDX 16:46AS 742	9h 07m	99%	86%
Alaska Details →	PAE 08:07 → SNA 10:59AS 2270 · flown by Horizon	3h 06m Santa Ana	SNA 14:05 → PDX 16:29AS 712	8h 22m	100%	85%
Alaska Details →	PAE 08:27 → SAN 11:21AS 2437 · flown by Horizon	2h 42m San Diego	SAN 14:03 → PDX 16:36AS 1402	8h 09m	100%	82%
Alaska Details →	PAE 07:05 → LAS 09:11AS 380	1h 49m Las Vegas	LAS 11:00 → PDX 13:20AS 1467	6h 15m	93%	79%
Alaska Details →	PAE 10:41 → LAS 13:10AS 777	58m Las Vegas	LAS 14:08 → PDX 16:29AS 756	5h 48m	87%	73%
Alaska Details →	PAE 06:57 → PHX 09:54AS 747	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 10:54 → PDX 13:43AS 511	6h 46m	84%	73%
Alaska Details →	PAE 08:19 → SFO 10:33AS 2139 · flown by Horizon	1h 35m San Francisco	SFO 12:08 → PDX 13:50AS 235	5h 31m	92%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON