Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 32 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 994 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 994 DCA 06:09 → MCO 08:33 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1621 DCA 15:22 → MCO 17:51 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 994 Southwest	DCA 06:09	MCO 08:33	2%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 980 Southwest	BWI 06:32	MCO 08:44	4%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 4914 Southwest	BWI 08:27	MCO 10:59	4%	2%	1.0%	no record
DL 1003 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:59	MCO 09:20	6%	2%	1.6%	82%
AA 592 American Flight history →	DCA 06:30	MCO 08:55	6%	2%	2.1%	90%
WN 547 Southwest	BWI 09:29	MCO 11:45	7%	2%	1.2%	no record
DL 1580 Delta	IAD 09:34	MCO 11:50	7%	3%	1.2%	no record
UA 379 United Flight history →	IAD 11:18	MCO 13:36	9%	4%	0.8%	89%
B6 2423 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:25	MCO 09:46	9%	2%	1.6%	79%
UA 689 United Flight history →	IAD 22:30	MCO 01:10	9%	5%	1.2%	84%
WN 3302 Southwest	BWI 10:50	MCO 13:02	10%	2%	1.2%	no record
UA 2206 United Flight history →	IAD 12:35	MCO 14:58	11%	5%	1.3%	86%
AA 2128 American Flight history →	DCA 08:13	MCO 10:40	11%	3%	1.8%	74%
F9 3663 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 09:14	MCO 11:54	11%	3%	2.1%	72%
WN 1092 Southwest	DCA 12:54	MCO 15:19	11%	3%	2.3%	no record
B6 1923 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 11:50	MCO 14:04	13%	4%	1.6%	71%
WN 1256 Southwest	BWI 12:22	MCO 14:36	13%	3%	2.2%	no record
DL 1513 Delta	IAD 22:46	MCO 01:00	15%	7%	3.2%	no record
WN 988 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:48	MCO 16:02	15%	5%	2.7%	61%
WN 4748 Southwest	BWI 17:32	MCO 19:47	15%	5%	5.1%	no record
UA 2463 United Flight history →	IAD 17:22	MCO 19:45	16%	8%	2.1%	71%
B6 2523 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 18:35	MCO 21:13	19%	10%	3.2%	62%
WN 3435 Southwest	BWI 18:49	MCO 21:04	19%	6%	4.4%	no record
WN 3221 Southwest	BWI 16:23	MCO 18:41	21%	6%	3.6%	no record
AA 2509 American Flight history →	DCA 14:02	MCO 16:25	22%	7%	2.7%	76%
UA 2861 United	IAD 15:46	MCO 18:25	22%	8%	1.6%	no record
WN 429 Southwest	DCA 18:00	MCO 20:22	22%	8%	3.6%	no record
AA 1153 American Flight history →	DCA 17:02	MCO 19:44	23%	9%	5.2%	89%worse than usual
F9 2309 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 15:08	MCO 17:35	24%	9%	6.8%	82%
AA 2139 American Flight history →	DCA 20:07	MCO 22:36	24%	11%	3.2%	57%
F9 4355 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 20:10	MCO 22:01	25%	12%	4.4%	68%
DL 1621 Delta	DCA 15:22	MCO 17:51	28%	8%	4.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON