tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 83 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 1 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay BWI departures

Updated model puts BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 65%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View BWIFlights at BWI

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 52% delay risk for BWI departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 10:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 38 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 10:00 AM EDT · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 65%

    What changed: 52% → 65% since the 10:00 AM EDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)65% over 38 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 2:00 PM EDT · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 23, 9:01 PM EDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.