tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 6 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 80 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 6 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay BWI departures

Model raises BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 60%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View BWIFlights at BWI

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for BWI departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 51 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 12:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 51 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 12:00 PM EDT · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 16:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 60%

    What changed: 50% → 60% since the 12:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 51 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 51 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 2:00 PM EDT · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 23, 6:00 PM EDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.