tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SMF departures

Model raises Sacramento departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 60%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 23 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 10:00 AM PDT · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Sacramento departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 60%

    What changed: 49% → 60% since the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 23 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 2:00 PM PDT · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 23, 3:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.