tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SMF departures

Model forecasts 54% delay risk for Sacramento departures 6–9 PM Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 54% delay risk for Sacramento departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 30 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 12:00 PM PDT · 4.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 23, 6:01 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.