tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 88 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHL departures

Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View PHLFlights at PHL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 6:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 6:00 PM EDT · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 23, 9:01 PM EDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.