Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 65 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (32%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~21 cancellationsHorizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 48 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~15 cancellationsHorizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 5 → 20 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (33%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~20 cancellationsHorizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 7 → 28 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 28 of the 77 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~28 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 47%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 departures that took off between 9:41 PM and 10:41 PM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:41 PM–10:41 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 100%Typical 24%
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
What changed: about 9 → 13 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 31 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~13 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 83% → 72% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 72%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 25 → 22 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 73 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~22 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 51% → 90% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Friday an average 90% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 90%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Of 12 departures that took off between 2:17 PM and 3:17 PM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 2:17 PM–3:17 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 25%
What changed: late share 72% at worst → 22% now
Of 18 departures that took off between 1:42 PM and 2:42 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 1:42 PM–2:42 PM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 22%Typical 25%
What changed: late share 44% at worst → 25% now
Of 20 departures that took off between 10:48 AM and 11:48 AM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:48 AM–11:48 AM ESTSample 20 flightsLate 25%Typical 21%
Of the 25 departures scheduled from Philadelphia (PHL) between 11:42 AM and 1:12 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 20. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 11:42 AM–1:12 PM ESTTight turns 9 of 20Share 45%
What changed: 51% → 41% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Friday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 3 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 57 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 6 → 3 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 65 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 57% → 54% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 54%Horizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: late share 83% → 47%
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 10:45 PM and 11:45 PM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:45 PM–11:45 PM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 47%Typical 22%
What changed: about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 80 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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