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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation PHL departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 28 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Saturday

Current state: Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started: Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST
Latest activity: Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST
Updates: 4

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

Initial Forecast Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST

Model expects about 6 cancellations among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Saturday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 77 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	PHL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~6.1 over 77 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST · 9.5 h ahead
Model version	famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST
Ingested	Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST
Published here	Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST (2026-11-14 01:27 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Fri Nov 13, 9:57 PM EST

Updated model now expects about 8 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Saturday

What changed: about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 77 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	PHL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~7.9 over 77 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST · 8.0 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
Source event time	Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST
Ingested	Fri Nov 13, 9:57 PM EST
Published here	Fri Nov 13, 9:57 PM EST (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 12:56 AM EST

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Saturday

What changed: about 8 → 7 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 77 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	PHL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~6.7 over 77 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM EST · 5.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM EST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 12:56 AM EST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 12:56 AM EST (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST