Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 11 cancellations among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 66 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.6 over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 20 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 11 → 20 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 65 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~20.3 over 65 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 6 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 20 → 6 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 65 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.9 over 65 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM EST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 66 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.8 over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 26 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 8 → 26 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 26 of the 65 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (40%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~26.1 over 65 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 26 → 12 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 65 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.7 over 65 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?