Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Saturday
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model expects about 15 cancellations among Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 48 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.9 over 48 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 15 → 5 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 48 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.0 over 48 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM EST · 2.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 5 → 18 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 48 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~17.6 over 48 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.