tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 83 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation PHL departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 20 among Philadelphia departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View PHLFlights at PHL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 5 cancellations among Philadelphia departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.3 over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 20 among Philadelphia departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 5 → 20 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (33%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~20.2 over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.