tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHL departures

Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 34%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View PHLFlights at PHL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 34%

    What changed: 47% → 34% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)34% over 62 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST · 0.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.