tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 88 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 1 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Developing Cancellation PHL departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Friday

Current state
Developing
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 7 cancellations among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 80 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.8 over 80 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 8:00 PM EST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 02:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Friday

    What changed: about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 80 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~3.8 over 80 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 10:00 PM EST · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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