tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay PHL departures

Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 70%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 30 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 12:00 PM EST · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 52%

    What changed: 40% → 52% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 30 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 3:00 PM EST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 57%

    What changed: 52% → 57% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 30 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 70%

    What changed: 57% → 70% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)70% over 31 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 12, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.