tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 59 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay PHL departures

Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 70%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View PHLFlights at PHL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 77 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 18:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 58%

    What changed: 50% → 58% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 77 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 3:00 PM EST · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 70%

    What changed: 58% → 70% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Thursday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)70% over 82 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 5:00 PM EST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 12, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.