tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHL departures

Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 41%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View PHLFlights at PHL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Friday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 57 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 12:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 05:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 51%

    What changed: 41% → 51% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 57 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 5:00 AM EST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 10:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 41%

    What changed: 51% → 41% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Friday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.