tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation PHL departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 22 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 5 cancellations among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 74 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.1 over 74 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 PM EST · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 25 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Friday

    What changed: about 5 → 25 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 74 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (34%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~24.9 over 74 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 22 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Friday

    What changed: about 25 → 22 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 73 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~22.3 over 73 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 5:00 PM EST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.