Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 24%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 5:57 AM EDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 55% delay risk for BWI departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 2:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BWI departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-24 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 48 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 24, 2:00 AM EDT · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-24 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 33%
What changed: 55% → 33% since the 2:00 AM EDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 4:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BWI departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-24 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 33% over 48 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 24, 4:00 AM EDT · 4.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-24 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 24%, near normal
What changed: 33% → 24%; calm-weather level 13%
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 24% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 5:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BWI departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-24 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 24% over 48 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 24, 5:00 AM EDT · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-24 09:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?