tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 83 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 1 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BWI departures

Model lowers BWI departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 26%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 6:56 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View BWIFlights at BWI

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 57% delay risk for BWI departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 2:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-24 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 40 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 24, 2:00 AM EDT · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-24 06:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts BWI departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 43%

    What changed: 57% → 43% since the 2:00 AM EDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Saturday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-24 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 40 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 24, 4:00 AM EDT · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-24 08:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers BWI departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 26%, near normal

    What changed: 43% → 26%; calm-weather level 20%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Saturday an average 26% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-24 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)26% over 40 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 24, 6:00 AM EDT · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-24 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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