Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 3:56 AM PDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 2:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-24 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 98 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 24, 2:00 AM PDT · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-24 09:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal
What changed: 42% → 31%; calm-weather level 19%
Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-24 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 31% over 98 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 24, 3:00 AM PDT · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-24 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?