Model lowers SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 26%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 4:57 AM PDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 45% delay risk for SFO departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 2:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-24 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 45% over 115 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 24, 2:00 AM PDT · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-24 09:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 34%
What changed: 45% → 34% since the 2:00 AM PDT forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Saturday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 3:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-24 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 34% over 115 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 24, 3:00 AM PDT · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-24 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 26%, near normal
What changed: 34% → 26%; calm-weather level 24%
Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Saturday an average 26% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-24 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 26% over 115 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 24, 4:00 AM PDT · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-24 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?