tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation FLL departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Tuesday to about 2

Current state
Resolved at 2:56 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Tuesday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 50 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.3 over 50 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 12:00 PM EDT · 23.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 16:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Tuesday

    What changed: about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EDT forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 58 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.8 over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 5:00 PM EDT · 18.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 6 among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Tuesday

    What changed: about 10 → 6 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM EDT forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 58 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.0 over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Oct 27, 12:00 AM EDT · 11.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 04:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Tuesday

    What changed: about 6 → 4 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EDT forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 58 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~4.1 over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Oct 27, 1:00 AM EDT · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 05:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Tuesday to about 2

    What changed: about 4 → 2

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 58 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~2.3 over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Oct 27, 2:00 AM EDT · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 06:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?