tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation FLL departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Tuesday to about 2

Current state
Resolved at 9:26 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 9 cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Tuesday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 59 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.1 over 59 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 7:00 PM EDT · 22.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 23:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 7 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Tuesday

    What changed: about 9 → 7 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EDT forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 63 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~7.1 over 63 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Oct 27, 6:00 AM EDT · 11.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 10:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Tuesday

    What changed: about 7 → 6 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EDT forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 63 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.0 over 63 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Oct 27, 7:00 AM EDT · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Tuesday to about 2

    What changed: about 6 → 2

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 63 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~2.1 over 63 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Oct 27, 8:00 AM EDT · 8.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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