tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation FLL departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Tuesday to about 2

Current state
Resolved at 5:55 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 7 cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Tuesday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 39 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~7.1 over 39 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 4:00 PM EDT · 22.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 20:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 5 among Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Tuesday

    What changed: about 7 → 5 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EDT forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 43 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~4.9 over 43 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Oct 27, 3:00 AM EDT · 10.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 08:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Tuesday to about 2

    What changed: about 5 → 2

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 43 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~1.5 over 43 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Oct 27, 5:00 AM EDT · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 09:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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