tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay HOU departures

Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 51%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View HOUFlights at HOU

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Hobby departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 21 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 1:00 PM CDT · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 51%

    What changed: 40% → 51% since the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 21 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 3:00 PM CDT · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 20:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Mon Oct 26, 9:01 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.