tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 71%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 3:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 3:00 PM PDT · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 59%

    What changed: 46% → 59% since the 3:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 6:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 6:00 PM PDT · 1.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 02:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 71%

    What changed: 59% → 71% since the 6:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)71% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 8:00 PM PDT · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 03:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Oct 26, 9:01 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.