Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:33 PM and 12:33 AM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:33 PM–12:33 AM PSTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 17.5 hModel famA-fc-v3
Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 14.5 hModel famA-fc-v3
Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: tight share 42% at worst → 0% now
Of the 19 departures scheduled from Las Vegas (LAS) between 11:06 PM and 12:36 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 15. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAS is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 11:06 PM–12:36 AM PSTTight turns 0 of 15Share 0%
What changed: 58% → 55%; calm-weather level 49%
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 65% at worst → 10% now
Of 30 departures that took off between 10:16 AM and 11:16 AM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:16 AM–11:16 AM PSTSample 30 flightsLate 10%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 67% at worst → 0% now
Of 27 departures that took off between 5:49 AM and 6:49 AM PST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:49 AM–6:49 AM PSTSample 27 flightsLate 0%Typical 6%
What changed: tight share 28% at worst → 3% now
Of the 34 departures scheduled from Las Vegas (LAS) between 6:26 PM and 7:56 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 33. For 1 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAS is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 6:26 PM–7:56 PM PSTTight turns 1 of 33Share 3%
What changed: late share 77% at worst → 0% now
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 6:33 AM and 7:33 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:33 AM–7:33 AM PSTSample 18 flightsLate 0%Typical 21%
What changed: late share 59% at worst → 5% now
Of 22 departures that took off between 5:58 AM and 6:58 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:58 AM–6:58 AM PSTSample 22 flightsLate 5%Typical 6%
What changed: tight share 39% at worst → 8% now
Of the 16 departures scheduled from Las Vegas (LAS) between 11:30 PM and 1:00 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 12. For 1 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAS is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 11:30 PM–1:00 AM PSTTight turns 1 of 12Share 8%
What changed: late share 47% at worst → 3% now
Of 29 arrivals that landed between 5:59 AM and 6:59 AM PST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:59 AM–6:59 AM PSTSample 29 flightsLate 3%Typical 21%
What changed: late share 64% at worst → 5% now
Of 20 departures that took off between 5:55 AM and 6:55 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:55 AM–6:55 AM PSTSample 20 flightsLate 5%Typical 6%
What changed: late share 50% at worst → 0% now
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 5:55 AM and 6:55 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:55 AM–6:55 AM PSTSample 21 flightsLate 0%Typical 21%
What changed: tight share 57% at worst → 8% now
Of the 40 departures scheduled from Las Vegas (LAS) between 10:13 PM and 11:43 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 36. For 3 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAS is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 10:13 PM–11:43 PM PSTTight turns 3 of 36Share 8%
What changed: 66% → 61%; calm-weather level 55%
Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 61%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 64% at worst → 6% now
Of 31 departures that took off between 5:48 AM and 6:48 AM PST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:48 AM–6:48 AM PSTSample 31 flightsLate 6%Typical 6%
What changed: tight share 48% at worst → 0% now
Of the 19 departures scheduled from Las Vegas (LAS) between 11:15 PM and 12:45 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 18. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAS is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 11:15 PM–12:45 AM PSTTight turns 0 of 18Share 0%
What changed: 52% → 34%; calm-weather level 34%
Tailodds’ model gives the 164 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Thursday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 34%Horizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 44% → 22%; calm-weather level 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 162 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Thursday an average 22% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 22%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 48% at worst → 0% now
Of 19 departures that took off between 5:46 AM and 6:46 AM PST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 30 minutes across 15 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:46 AM–6:46 AM PSTSample 19 flightsLate 0%Typical 6%
What changed: 48% → 33%; calm-weather level 29%
Tailodds’ model gives the 133 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 33%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 42% → 24%; calm-weather level 20%
Tailodds’ model gives the 152 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 24% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 24%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 53% → 71%
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 11:04 PM and 12:04 AM PST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:04 PM–12:04 AM PSTSample 17 flightsLate 71%Typical 21%
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