tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 61%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 7:56 PM PST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 66% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 89 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 6:00 PM PST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 61%, near normal

    What changed: 66% → 61%; calm-weather level 55%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 89 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 7:00 PM PST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?