Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 34%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 3:56 AM PST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 164 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 52% over 164 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 2:00 AM PST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 34%, near normal
What changed: 52% → 34%; calm-weather level 34%
Tailodds’ model gives the 164 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Thursday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 34% over 164 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 3:00 AM PST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?