tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 55%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 8:55 PM PST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 58% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 5:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 5:00 PM PST · 2.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 02:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 55%, near normal

    What changed: 58% → 55%; calm-weather level 49%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 8:00 PM PST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 04:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?