tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 88 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BWI departures

Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Tuesday to 19%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 1:57 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View BWIFlights at BWI

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for BWI departures 9 AM–noon Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 11:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-27 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 11:00 PM EDT · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 03:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Tuesday to 19%, near normal

    What changed: 42% → 19%; calm-weather level 13%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 19% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 1:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-27 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)19% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Oct 27, 1:00 AM EDT · 7.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 05:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?