tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 6 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SJC departures

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Thursday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View SJCFlights at SJC

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSJC departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-29 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 23 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 29, 1:00 PM PDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-29 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Oct 29, 3:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.