Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 43%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 9:52 PM and 10:52 PM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at San Jose arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:52 PM–10:52 PM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 19%
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 22.1 hModel famA-fc-v3
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 21.5 hModel famA-fc-v3
Of 12 departures that took off between 12:39 PM and 1:39 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:39 PM–1:39 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 12 departures that took off between 12:40 PM and 1:40 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:40 PM–1:40 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Monday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 43%Horizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 12 departures that took off between 12:50 PM and 1:50 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:50 PM–1:50 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Monday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 47%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 12 departures that took off between 12:27 PM and 1:27 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:27 PM–1:27 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 18%
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 14 departures that took off between 1:11 PM and 2:11 PM PDT, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 1:11 PM–2:11 PM PDTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 14 departures that took off between 2:15 PM and 3:15 PM PDT, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 2:15 PM–3:15 PM PDTSample 14 flightsLate 57%Typical 27%
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 15 departures that took off between 12:58 PM and 1:58 PM PDT, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:58 PM–1:58 PM PDTSample 15 flightsLate 53%Typical 21%
What changed: 46% → 57% since the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 45% → 58% since the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 58%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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