tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 75 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 6 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay SJC departures

Model raises San Jose departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 58%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View SJCFlights at SJC

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSJC departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 25 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 9:00 AM PDT · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 16:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Jose departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 58%

    What changed: 45% → 58% since the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSJC departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 25 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 12:00 PM PDT · 1.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 23, 3:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.