tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 81 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay SJC departures

Model raises San Jose departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 57%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View SJCFlights at SJC

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 46% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSJC departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 26 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 10:00 AM PDT · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Jose departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 57%

    What changed: 46% → 57% since the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSJC departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 26 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 12:00 PM PDT · 4.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Oct 23, 6:01 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.