tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay SJC departures

Model raises San Jose departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 55%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View SJCFlights at SJC

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 46% delay risk for San Jose departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSJC departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 39 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 9:00 AM PDT · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 16:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Jose departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 55%

    What changed: 46% → 55% since the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSJC departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 39 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 11:00 AM PDT · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Oct 23, 12:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.