tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 6 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay HOU departures

Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 78%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Hobby departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Friday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 10:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 24 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 10:00 AM CDT · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 65%

    What changed: 52% → 65% since the 10:00 AM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)65% over 24 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 2:00 PM CDT · 2.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 78%

    What changed: 65% → 78% since the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Friday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)78% over 24 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 4:00 PM CDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Oct 30, 6:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.