tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay HOU departures

Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 77%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
8
Create monitor View HOUFlights at HOU

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 58% delay risk for Hobby departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 10:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 21 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 10:00 AM CDT · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 62%

    What changed: 58% → 62% since the 10:00 AM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 12:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)62% over 21 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 12:00 PM CDT · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 53%

    What changed: 62% → 53% since the 12:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 21 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 1:00 PM CDT · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 67%

    What changed: 53% → 67% since the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)67% over 21 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 2:00 PM CDT · 5.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 78%

    What changed: 67% → 78% since the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)78% over 21 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 3:00 PM CDT · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 20:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  6. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 67%

    What changed: 78% → 67% since the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 6:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)67% over 21 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 6:00 PM CDT · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 23:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  7. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 71%

    What changed: 67% → 71% since the 6:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 7:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)71% over 21 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 7:00 PM CDT · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-31 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  8. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 77%

    What changed: 71% → 77% since the 7:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 77% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 8:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)77% over 21 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 8:00 PM CDT · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-31 01:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Oct 30, 9:02 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.