tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories <1 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 74 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 47% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 76 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 11:00 AM PDT · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 30, 12:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.