tailodds FORECAST
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Observed Major Resolved Delay ORD arrivals

O'Hare arrivals back near normal: 4% late in the last hour

Current state
Resolved at 5:56 AM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Observed

    O'Hare arrivals running late: 53% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

    Of 55 arrivals that landed between 5:47 PM and 6:47 PM CDT, 29 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at O'Hare arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window5:47 PM–6:47 PM CDT
    Sample55 flights, 29 late (53%)
    Comparison26% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals
    Median delay17.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-31 23:47 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Observed

    O'Hare arrival delays worsen: 67% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 53% → 67%

    Of 55 arrivals that landed between 6:13 PM and 7:13 PM CDT, 37 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at O'Hare arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window6:13 PM–7:13 PM CDT
    Sample55 flights, 37 late (67%)
    Comparison26% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals
    Median delay30.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 00:13 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Recovery Observed

    O'Hare arrivals back near normal: 4% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 97% at worst → 4% now

    Of 27 arrivals that landed between 4:56 AM and 5:56 AM CST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at O'Hare arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window4:56 AM–5:56 AM CST
    Sample27 flights, 1 late (4%)
    Comparison26% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals
    Median delay-16.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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